An up to the minute update begins the show. Polls are becoming more relevant as we move closer to election day. The credible polls are looking quite good and getting better. Of course corporate media wants and needs you to be terrified. So what I'm saying here may sound unbelievable after another week of having them terrorize you. So let's dive into what is REALLY happening. It will lower your blood pressure.
Hey, Todd here. I just wanted to do an update before we start the show. A couple things happened after I already recorded the show that you're about to hear. I'm speaking at you right now from Monday morning, October 28th. On Sunday morning, a new ABC Ipsos poll came out and it has Kamala Harris 51 to Trump 47. That's a four point lead and it's pretty huge. And the ABC Ipsos poll is a very highly regarded, very well trusted poll, very highly rated. I think a lot of people are pretty astonished by it. Uh, Matthew Dowd, for instance, says in 2012, ABC had Obama +3, while nearly every other pollster had the race even or Romney ahead. Obama won by four Today. ABC News has Harris plus four. Stuart Stevens says the most important number in this race is Trump's inability to move north of 47%. That was true in June. It's true now. It'll be true on November 5th. Blank Slate points out Harris hitting that 43% number among whites again. New York Times has her at that level as well. This poll has her hitting Biden 2020 targets among minorities. She's actually polling better than Biden did. Numbers are ideal for Harris plus five to plus six win in the election. So you see how this is going. Last night, of course, was Trump's big Nazi rally in New York. Steve, uh, Miller, I believe, probably talked him into doing it because Steve Miller's big wet dream would be to have a Nazi gathering in Madison Square Garden just like they did in 1939. And of course, Stephen Miller got to go up on stage and, um, be the, um, Nazi that he is. And of course, you're hearing this morning about the disaster that that whole thing was. Even the Trump campaign is trying to apologize for it. And they don't, you know, they don't apologize for anything. It's quite a disaster. There was a comedian called Puerto Rico, a floating island of garbage. There's more than a million Puerto Ricans live in Florida. Rick Scott, who's running in the Senate down there, immediately tried to distance himself, but can't, uh, makes it even more likely that he might lose Florida and even more likely. And you're going to hear in the show coming up talking a little bit about what's going on in Florida. Harris has a chance in Florida is what I'm telling you. Anyway, I don't want to repeat some of the stuff that's on the show. I do also want to play you this short bit from the Michelle Obama speech that happened on Saturday. Night. I ended up recording the show on Saturday afternoon. That's why I'm doing this update. I wanted to update you. This is something that should make you feel good. So I hope you'll forgive me if I'm a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump's gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn. I hope that you'll forgive me if I'm a little angry that we are indifferent to his erratic behavior, his obvious mental decline, his history as a convicted felon, a known slumlord, a predator found liable for sexual abuse. All of this while we pick apart Kamala's answers from interviews that he doesn't even have the courage to do. Y'all. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. So I hope you enjoy the show. Like I said, I don't want to repeat things that are on the show, but, wow, things are good. All right. Feel, uh, good. We have one week until election day vote. And now here's the show here on the ground. Change happens fast. Problems feel frequent and urgent. It's loud, and anxiety runs high. From a satellite view, the earth looks the same as it did thousands of years ago. We've been here before. Let's learn from our past and shoot for a better hello, and welcome to this episode of A Satellite View. I'm Todd Mickelson, your host, speaking at you from Saturday, October 26, 2024. In the space and time continuum, we're just a little more than a week away from election day. You may be listening to this a mere week before election day, and, uh, things are looking really, really good. I'm telling you. Here's one thing. Michigan's record for early voting was 11,000 in one day. Today is the first day of early voting in Michigan, and over 100,000 people have now voted. And there's still several hours left to go. Wow. 32 million early votes, approximately, already have been put in. And we're starting to get ideas from some of those. Marist poll of early voting people and how they are voting. These are exit polls of people voting early, meaning somebody went, voted in person, came out the door. We asked them in Arizona, Kamala Harris, 55% to 44% for Trump. North Carolina, 55 for Harris, 43 for Trump. Georgia, 54 for Harris, 45 for Trump. Also, New York Times says 59 to 40 in favor of Kamala. And the CNN poll on early voting, 61 to 36% in favor of Kamala Harris. So when you see CNN saying the things that they're saying on the air, which, by the way, they're starting to cover their butts. They're starting to tell some real news that is actually good news because they're starting to see that this is going to make them look bad. Here is somebody who used to work on the, uh, he was part of the Obama administration. He's a political analyst. He used to work in national security, economics and elections. It's weird because he's on, uh, Twitter and a lot of important people follow him, but I don't know his name. Now he lives in Maine and he just, he's called I love you, Maine. And then it's Aywonked. But he's very knowledgeable. If you want to follow him on Twitter, taywonked. I'll read a little bit from a thread that he put out yesterday. The blowout is coming. The race isn't close. It's not neck and neck. You're reading that right. Harris is going to win in a blowout. I'll say it again for the people in the back. Trump and the GOP are in serious trouble, and they know it. Want to know the state of the race, follow along. Look at the Senate races in the swing states where the Electoral College will be decided. Republicans are behind in every single one. Every single one. And Democrats are within margin of error in Texas and Florida with Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, who would be great to get rid of both of those guys. Women and independent voters will drive the election and they are breaking for Harris, especially in Arizona and Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia already in play thanks to the gender gap. But there's one more. Florida. Florida is in play with the abortion amendment. The Senate race we just mentioned, um, between Rick Scott and his opponent. It's competitive with Dems pouring millions into it. Trump was consistently four to five points ahead, but now in the margin of error, if Harris wins Florida, it's all over. Harris favorability is better than Trump's, and we've never seen a candidate with worse favorability than Trump. So now it's get out the vote. It's classic electoral strategy to push the narrative that the race is close to motivate turnout. At this stage of the campaign, the national polls and the mainstream media are full of noise and narrative pushing. Internal polling from both campaigns show Democratic momentum and Harris is ahead. Only polls that matter, swing states, especially those with Senate races. This race isn't close. Trump and Republicans know it. Democrats know it. Dems are looking to run up the score and Eradicate MAGA for good by taking back the House and holding the Senate. And it's right there in front of them. There's a chance Democrats win Florida and North Carolina and end this thing by 10 Eastern time on election night. This is my general feeling as well. And it's not just because of this one thread by this very knowledgeable guy. As you know, I stay in close touch with Simon Rosenberg and what he's saying. You've heard me talk about these fake GOP favored polls to try and skew the, ah, average to make it look like Republicans are doing well. You've been hearing on CNN and all these other. CNN is becoming nearly useless to me, but they're saying, oh, a big surge for Donald Trump. Now, last week I pointed out that the surge, quote, unquote, for Donald Trump brought him up to a point still underneath Kamala, and then it just evened out. That's when these polls, these GOP polls started to get pushed. Rosenberg says that now There are over 80 of these polls put out by 31 different organizations in Pennsylvania alone. Out of 32 polls, 19 of them are these bogus GOP polls. Some of these have really no methodology. Some won't say what their methodology is. Some are ran by a couple of guys who are in high school, supposedly. Simon Rosenberg also talks about when people actually vote. We saw this in France and European elections. Fascists underperform because when people actually go to vote, they think a little harder about who they're voting for. So all of the polls in France and Europe were scary as hell. Right? Scaring the crap out of everybody. Then the fascists lost. Now we're closing. We're in the closing days, and things are going extremely well without those bogus red wave polls. That's what Simon calls them. We're up three to four points, and it's been stable and consistent for six weeks or so, ever since the debates. It's looking very much like 2022, when everyone said there was going to be a red tsunami and there wasn't. That's very much what Simon Rosenberg and Tom, uh, Bonier and people like that are seeing. Matthew Dowd now you can add to that list. Matthew Dowd is saying that Kamala is going to win comfortably. A, uh, couple episodes ago, I said you can trust your sixth sense, right? Your gut feeling, or as Devo would put it, your gut feeling. Yeah, I apologize. I can't really sing very well in this, uh, setting. But actual people, you got to remember, we're all actual people. We're not like you hear on tv. On tv, you see a Trump rally and you see a bunch of crazy nut people yelling into microphones, wearing. I mean, some of them are wearing diapers, saying, real men wear diapers. Seriously, that at least was a thing earlier this summer when people were again talking about Trump's incontinence. He's got incompetence as well, but the diaper thing is his incontinence. Uh, you see those people on TV and it makes you feel like. And then, you know, they'll say on cnn, half of the country is like that. Half of the country is maga. Half of the country wants Trump to win. It's just simply not true. The Republican registered voters has been dwindling, dwindling, dwindling, because people have been leaving the Republican Party for years now. There was a very interesting event when Trump, I don't know if it was this last week or the week before, even when he went on unovision, Univision, uh, as Americans call it. The people's reaction on that show, they had real people. My friend Doug called me and said, you know, that show made me feel really good. I saw these people reacting to Trump in the way that people should react to Trump. The faces that they made when Trump gave crazy answers. He said, uh, you know, what's your name got killed that day and nobody got killed. He said it just back to back like that. And you see this woman kind of wince and go, what? What? You know, just silently. It's like, yeah, I feel like that woman, she caught it. Why does that never happen on tv? Of course, it took a Spanish speaking, uh, event to have real people there. When CNN has these panelists, these five people are undecided what, why, and they even got caught at least one time where they were lying. They had a strong Trump supporter as one of the panelists, you know, and then they say, how many people are voting for Kamala Harris after this? A town hall. And like, two people raised their hands and the others are like, I don't know yet. You know, I don't know. She didn't quite win me over. At an event where Trump canceled in two different forms. First, it was supposed to be a debate. He wouldn't debate her. So then they say, okay, town hall. We'll do a town hall with Kamala Harris and we'll do a town hall with you. And he's like, nope, I'm not showing up. And these people are like, you know, I don't know. I know she talked to us. And I Appreciate that. But, you, uh, know, she gave a lot of details about her economic plan, but I just still kind of feel like they're all good. I like everything she said. I just, I just can't really decide yet. And, you know, and Trump, uh, you know, he's like, taking a dump in his diaper. He's, ah, now he's calling America a garbage can. Um, I like everything Kamala says. I don't like anything Trump says, but I'm still really undecided. So don't feel bad when you're scared, when you're watching stuff like that. Don't feel ostracized by the world. It's not you. That's abnormal. It's that. That is abnormal. They want you to be scared. Just like I read by this guy on Twitter. Mainstream media, they want us to tune in tomorrow. You know, they want it to keep going. They want the craziness to keep going. You're an actual person, and I am an actual person, and everyone you know is an actual person who has a thinking mind. Are any of these people on a panel that they have after a CNN town hall? It's a, uh, farce. Keep that in mind. Now we're going to take a little bit of an early break, actually, if you can believe it, because I've got a lot more to talk about. I'll throw this in a B&poll. Michigan State University, they just took a poll, uh, two days ago. I think maybe they announced the results. 52.2% for Kamala Harris, 47.7% for Trump. That's a four and a half point margin. That's huge in an election these days. Long gone are the times when somebody won a presidential race by five or ten points. It's always like by two points or less. That's how it's been for a very long time. Now she's up by four and a half points in Michigan. She's caught up and even surpassed in many, many polls on the economy. Democrats have always been behind. Don't ask me why. People, uh. But now people are getting more engaged and they're starting to think about this. Wow. Every time a Republican president comes in, we have something like a, you know, a major economic disaster, and then the Democratic president comes in and fixes it. So people are starting to see, yeah, you know what? Not to mention all the professional economists who are saying Trump would cause the whole world to go into chaos with his economic plans. Kamala Harris'actually people would save money. It would help middle class people. So yeah, let's take a break, and I'll come back and we're gonna go through some more things that are gonna make you feel better about M. And we're back on a satellite view. Thanks so much for coming back. Just, uh, I just have so much information I would like to share with you, but I'm feeling like it's a little disorganized here. I will talk about Haley. Nikki Haley voters. Haley's vote share in 2024 primary. It was two times Biden's 2020 margin in Michigan. Now, to explain that a little further, there are more people who voted for Nikki Haley in Michigan in the Republican primary. Two times more than what Biden won the state by. Those are people who voted for Trump in 2020. I mean, we don't know that they're all voting for Harris, but that's a pretty big margin. Two times more than Biden's margin. If only half of those people vote for Kamala Harris, she's already doing better than Biden. Three times the margin in North Carolina, seven times the margin in Georgia, and 10 times the margin in Arizona. The Nikki Haley voters that Trump has been telling to f off, these people are going to become lifelong Democrats. Many, many, many of these people are still. They're not going to vote for Trump. There's an organization called Harris, or. I'm sorry, Haley Voters for Harris. It's ran by a guy who went against Trump the moment he ran in 2015. A lifetime Republican. He was, uh, chief of staff for Arlen Specter or something like that. I mean, he was a longtime, lifetime, deep Republican who's been in Washington, D.C. working for, you know, and he turned against the party because of Trump. Eight years ago, nine years ago. These people. And then you got Liz Cheney, you got all the. Look at all of these Republicans that are voting against Donald Trump. He's losing, losing, losing many voters. Now, when you lose an election and then you try and run again to win that same election, you need to have more votes than you did when you lost. You see how that works? Donald Trump is telling voters to f off because he's so addled. I've been really digging into a lot more sources just because I want to back up sort of, uh, a lot of things that I'm. That I usually talk about and predictions I make and things like that. I want to cross reference, I want to confirm things, I want to corroborate things. So I've been doing that a lot more for the last almost two weeks. A lot more looking at tons of different. Oh, Doug told me not to say tons of. That's a, uh, many, many. I mean, quite a lot of different people who are making predictions in accordance with polling and then putting it on the maps. Some of them do better than others. Some of them are aware of the more than 80 polls now that are totally trying to sway the averages. Some of them only do the averages of, like, the maybe five or so credible independent polls. We talked about that a lot last week, if you want to listen to last week's episode. But I'm realizing that my show is kind of in parts now. What I'm saying this week will make a lot more sense if you go back and listen to last week and then the week before that, because we're getting closer and closer to Election Day. Things are piling up, and I can't keep reviewing and getting people back up to speed. You got to go back and listen, and you'll, uh, know a little bit more about what I'm talking about here. You know, in that case, the five more credible polls, these maps, uh, are being made, and they're very thorough. They'll even say, you know, Kamala Harris is winning by 19 points in the state of Washington, so we're going to make that one blue. And they go through the entire map, and they explain meticulously why they're making this particular state either, like, leaning Democrat or total Democrat or vice versa. More and more, I'm hearing the talk of all seven swing states are going to go in one direction. CNN even said this, but the guy is such a twerp on cnn. He said, you know, this could be a blowout. It's still razor thin, close, but it could be a blowout. We just don't know in which direction. So, okay, analyze that. You're a person. You're a thinking person. That guy is treating you like an idiot. So when you think, okay, how could that be? Why are you saying there's going to be a blowout? But then you're saying you don't know if it's going to be a blowout in favor of Trump or a blowout in favor of Kamala, that, uh, what, so you're not crazy? He's full of crap, to put it mildly. Some of these maps are doing that as well. And it's funny because some of them are doing it in exactly opposite of what the ones that I think are credible are doing. And when I say they're credible, I'm watching very closely what they're considering in their choices. Of picking the states. Now, the ones that are most thorough are starting more and more as we get closer to election Day, to say, you know, like, uh, for instance, there was this one guy who said, my prediction is that she's going to get 279 electoral votes because she's going to win all of the swing states except Georgia and North Carolina. But when I really analyze why I chose those as leaning Republican, it's only by a, uh, 0.4 margin in one state and a 0.5 margin in one state. And those polls could very well be under polling for Kamala Harris. And that's another thing I'm hearing. More and more of the polling is likely, you know, not showing Harris as much as it really is there. Even in the early votes. A lot of registered Republican voters, we think, you know, we count them as voting Republican, but a lot of them we know are voting for Democrats. Same thing happened in 2016, but in reverse. Trump overperformed his polling in 2016. Now, pretty much everybody thinks that Kamala Harris is going to overperform the polling. And this guy's saying if she overperforms the polling, she could very easily go 0.5 up, which means she wins that state. So he actually changed his prediction. And at least he said it's very possible she could win North Carolina and Georgia. And he made it sound like he thinks that's likely because he also thinks it's likely that she is going to overperform her numbers in the polls. And he's seeing that those two states are probably going to go for her, in which case, if she wins all the battleground states, she gets 319 electoral votes and Trump would have 219 electoral votes. I predicted a few weeks ago that she was going to get more than 300 electoral votes, and I feel very confident that she's going to do that. 319 and possibly higher. I think there is a chance in Florida and Texas. We're talking upper three hundreds if things like that happen. I'm not making an official prediction about Florida and Texas, but I got a good feeling, I really do. The more I hear, uh, let's see if I can find this clip a little bit more about Florida. Florida just suffered through two major hurricanes, but there's another disaster on the way, and its name is Donald Trump. According to three Republicans who held prominent Sunshine State roles. Bob Milligan, who served as Florida's last elected comptroller before it changed to the current chief financial officer post, he is backing Kamala Harris for president Jim Smith, Florida's 32nd Attorney General and two time Secretary of State and longtime GOP strategists are doing the same. Uh, two more guys and also Governor Bob Martinez ran Jeb Bush's 1994 gubernatorial campaign, called the ex president unprincipled. So you have elected Republican or ex elected Republican officials in Florida saying you have to vote for Kamala Harris because Trump is too dangerous. Going on even beyond Florida, they Join more than 100 Republican former National security officials, several former Nikki Haley campaign staffers, a dozen former White House lawyers, and 300 former campaign staffers for Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, Mitt Romney and John McCain to cross the aisle in favor of Harris. You see what's happening here. How can that many prominent Republicans be actually risking their lives and the safety of their families because of Trump's crazy people wanting to kill people and, uh, giving them death threats? At the very least, all these people are putting themselves in that kind of harm's way. Hundreds, hundreds here I just mentioned. Why would they come out and say you have to vote for Kamala Harris? You know, think about it. You're a thinking person. Uh, here's another thing. In an Emerson poll, voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago, break for Trump, 52 to 48%. While voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60 to 36%. And voters who say they could still change their mind are leaning toward Harris by 5%. What about all of the people registering to vote that I keep talking about? They're the most likely to vote and they're overwhelmingly from demographics that vote for Democrats. You have independent voters, you have, you know, not made up their mind voters. You have brand new registered voters and you have an awful lot of Republican voters turning and supporting Kamala Harris. And again now, just now, I hear it mentioned every once in a while on, um, MSNBC or CNN or something like that. They'll say, you know, women's reproductive healthcare rights are still really important in this election. Yeah, of course they are. They're going to be. Why would they get less important? Why would women, uh, be less energized to save their own lives in Texas? The most, the most harsh abortion bans in Texas. People are going to be motivated to vote in favor of women's reproductive health care rights. This is the first presidential election since those rights were stripped away, taken away by Trump and his fraudulent Supreme Court justices. Rights that we had and now we don't. First time in American history where we lost some of our freedom taken away by Republicans. Women's reproductive health care rights. The right to an abortion is still going to be just as strong of an issue as it was in 2022 and 2023 and 2024 and all these special elections where ruby red, dark red, Kansas, Ohio, overwhelmingly voted in favor of trying to protect women's reproductive health care rights. And people are talking about the economy and the border. That's the other thing Republicans are saying, you know, we're paying too much for gas and groceries. Not anymore. The economy is as good as it's ever been in the history of the country. You can't say that anymore. Prices are way down. And even Kamala Harris says, I want to bring prices down even more. And I here's four ways I'm going to do it. And you have people listening to that saying, uh, I still can't make up my mind. Trump's going to say, I'm going to put a thousand percent tariff on everything. Everything. Uh, you know, I mean, so you see what I'm talking about here. You can trust your reason and your gut feeling. So I'm telling you, they want you to be scared. Every once in a while, though, they'll say, ah, yeah, I kind of keep forgetting about abortion. You know, that makes me think, Kamala Harris is just going to sweep this. You'll even hear people say, so why is Kamala Harris not winning by more if Trump is this crazy? She is. She is winning by more than what you're saying on your stupid electronic chart with your stupid sleeves rolled up, making us think that you're slaving over your electronic chart 24 hours a day. That doesn't work anymore. Steve Kornacki and whatever the CNN Steve Kornacki wannabe guy is, that doesn't work anymore. And even, at least the CNN guy is starting to set up, you know, now he can say, hey, two weeks ago, I said this was going to be a, uh, blowout. Yeah, but you didn't know which side was going to do the blowout. But now that's what he's going to say. Hey, I predicted a blowout. That's what we got. That's what they're starting to do on mainstream media. Go to YouTube and put in Simon Rosenberg and start watching. He sums up all of this really, really well. I've been doing a much deeper dive. I've been looking everywhere I can think of finding, uh, really, uh, a plethora of information. And I'm seeing and confirming what my gut feeling is it's going to be a blowout, and they're covering it up, and the Republicans are faking that they even have a chance to win. And mainstream news says, a big surge for Donald Trump. And then they go, why is there a big surge for Donald Trump? They never answer that question. Why would there be a big surge for Donald Trump? The Kamala Harris campaign has been doing a really good job of exposing Donald Trump, not to mention generals, you know, General John Kelly saying what all the things he said. I don't need to repeat it, you know, about that story. Why would Trump be having a big surge? All right, he's not. We're going to see when the only valid poll is counted. The final numbers are going to be astounding. And they're not going to come in for probably a week after Election Day. But we're going to find out that Kamala Harris overwhelmingly won this, and we're going to find out before midnight on election night Eastern time. Those are predictions that I am solid on, definitely. And right now, it's about ground game. Donald Trump has no ground game. Virtually no ground game. Kamala Harris is running a fantasy campaign. She had 30,000 people at a rally in Texas because she can afford to rent a huge stadium and get insurance and all of. And have big jumbotrons, and she can afford to put on a huge, huge production like that multiple times a day, which is what she's doing. And she and Tim Walz are exposing this crap about Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Also, uh, Simon Rosenberg pointed out something I thought was interesting. When the hurricanes came, Kamala kind of had to come off the campaign trail and go actually be part of government. She had to help with these huge disasters. The part of the storm that hit North Carolina is the worst natural event that happened in North Carolina's history. She had to be the vice president and had to get taken off the campaign trail for about three or four days. And in that time, Trump was getting worse and worse. And that's coming through. Simon Rosenberg has a friend who's, uh. He didn't want to say who it is because he's still actually working for some polling company. I think he owns it or runs it or something. But anyway, this guy said, you know, something, uh, this race really changed starting about two or three weeks ago, really started changing where Donald Trump was really getting through to people. But it was all negative. We're hearing especially women getting really nervous about Trump's stability, not even talking about women's reproductive health care rights. Just about his mental stability or instability. Very interesting. The more people see of Trump, the better it is for Democrats. Kamala Harris, me, you, the country and the world. And he's absolutely collapsing. We could go on, but we're over time. Uh, this will have to continue next week. We've got two more shows next week. No, this one, and then, oh, wow. After that. We only have one more show before election day. One more show before election day. So vote. It's very likely that you're in a state that, where you can vote early. Vote early. Do it. Vote. If you vote, we win. That's why that's a slogan that Kamala Harris uses. When we vote, we win. We're going to win this, and it's going to save the world. Literally. Those are the stakes. But we're doing really, really well. The closer we get to election day, the more solid all of this is, the more likely. I'm saying, okay, I'm going to predict that she not only gets more than 300 electoral votes. I'm going to say that she's getting 319. At least. At least 319 electoral votes. The popular vote is going to be insane. I have already made my prediction. I'll stick to. She's going to win by at least 11 million votes. I stick with that. And any of these numbers get more and more solid as the minutes now click off up to election day. So vote. Get everyone you know to vote, and we're going to really turn things around. Then we're going to win the Senate, we're going to win the House, and we're going to win the White House and the things we can do after that. Wow. You know how they talk about trying to get rid of the deficit? We can start to actually work on that. You know, Joe Biden already did. He's brought it down. Uh, I think almost $3 trillion, something like that. He's been clicking it down. Trump clicked it way up. Biden's been clicking it down and still investing in good things. Uh, thank you so much for listening. We're going to keep each other sane until election day. There's only a week more to go, so we will speak at you next week. We'll keep each other. We'll be there for each other. Right? So, again, thanks for listening. We'll speak at you next week. You've been listening to a, uh, satellite view with Todd Mickelson. Go to ToddMichelson.com for links and more information. Someday soon, we'll be on the same page someday soon. J.