The Harris/Walz campaign is a historical mammoth movement. The Trump/Vance campaign...well...there really ain't no campaign happnin'. He's stealing and waisting campaign dollars while she is using campaign dollars wisely and in service to her donors. By the way, she raised four times more than he has in the last few weeks. Let's analyze the data. We'll hear the voice of Simon Rosenberg who we've followed closely because he knows how to analyze the data as well or better than anybody. It's getting REALLY interesting and more fun.
Here on the ground, change happens fast. Problems feel frequent and urgent. It's loud, and anxiety runs high. From a satellite view, the earth looks the same as it did thousands of years ago. We've been here before. Let's learn from our past and shoot for a better future. One in three women in America lives in a state with a Trump abortion ban. This includes Georgia and every state in the south except Virginia. Think about that when you also combine that with what we know has been longstanding neglect around an issue like maternal mortality. Think about that when you compound that with what has been longstanding neglect of women in communities with a lack of the adequate resources they need for healthcare, prenatal, during their pregnancy, postpartum. Think about that. And these hypocrites, uh, want to start talking about this, is in the best interest of women and children. Well, where you been? Where you been? When it comes m to taking care of the women and children of America, where have you been? How dare they? How dare they? That, of course, is Kamala Harris from Friday, Friday, which would have been September 20, because we're speaking at you from Saturday, September 21, 2024, in the space and time continuum. I'm Todd Mickelson, your host. Thanks for listening to this episode of a satellite view. Kamala Harris, she's campaigning. Uh, here's what Donald Trump was doing on Friday. He writes on his truth, social, whatever it's called. How bad is it when a candidate. I'm not going to do his voice too much, because we're all getting sick of hearing his voice. And people, um, tell me I do his voice really well, and I think it's just so abrasive that I don't even want to imitate him anymore. How bad is it when a candidate running for office makes a major part of her campaign that she works at McDonald's, and it turns out not to be true? But the worst part is the media refuses to talk about it. Here's another thing he writes. I saved flavored vaping in 2019, and it greatly helped people get off smoking. I raised the age to 21, keeping it away from kids in quotations. For some reason, Kamala and Joe want everything banned, killing small businesses all over the country. I'll save a vaping again. New slogan. I'm sure, uh, he'll be trying to sell t shirts and hats. Let's say vaping again. He started a speech today in North Carolina talking about Tim walls and then saying, he's weird. He's weird. JD and I are not weird. We have a lot of problems but we're not weird. One of the first things he said in his speech today, at least he was on the campaign trail right? Friday. He wasn't on the campaign trail whatsoever. Yeah. So we're going to talk about who's running a campaign and who ain't again, uh, every week. There's just so many things. It's incredible. I'm going through here looking at things, and, uh, Jim Comer is back. James Comer. Apparently, he's going to try and subpoena Tim walls next week. It's not my fault. He didn't commit any crimes. Not my fault. Trump committed all the crime. He's coming back because Congress is back in session and it's. It ain't going well. They had another vote on IVF. The Republicans voted against it. Republicans don't want IVF. By the way, the content of what Kamala said there, I kind of skipped over because I wanted to show the contrast between her and Trump on Friday. But you heard what she said. ProPublica came out with some stories. So far, we've got two women. There are more. ProPublica even says we're working on stories of more women. There's been an investigation in Georgia, and only now, two years after the Supreme Court got rid of Roe v. Wade, are these results starting to be reported. Horrible stories. You probably heard of a woman who died. She was forced to die. She was in the hospital, and the doctors all said this was preventable. Even her family did not realize it was preventable until this report in ProPublica came out. The woman has a six year old son. She was having trouble with a new pregnancy. She kept going into emergency rooms and they said, we can't treat you or we will get arrested and thrown in jail. She was dying for about 20 hours after doctors knew she needed help that they were afraid to give her because of Republicans passing these laws in these states. Trump says everyone wanted it to go to the states, which is a lie. Now it's in the states. Like you heard Kamala say, one in three women are living under a Trump abortion ban. Yes, Republicans will make it into a national abortion bandaid, which will just kill more women. Republicans are killing women. Republicans are killing children. Republicans are terrorizing cities. I'm talking about Springfield, Ohio. Yes, I'm calling you a, uh, murdering terrorist. If you're an elected Republican, that's what you are. No, I'm not going to apologize for saying so. You need to apologize for being so motherf. Most m of this show is going to be fun, but I'm in a rage over this stuff, these stories coming out, you know, stories that happened long ago, a year ago, a year and a half ago, because of republican legislation resulting in Americans dying. Americans dying. Okay. Now I ask you, which one of these clips sounds like it's somebody running a political campaign. So I'd call up my wife and I'd say, baby, who could draw crowds? Nobody can draw crowds like me. Nobody. Not even close. I'm the greatest of all time. Maybe greater even than Elvis because Elvis had a guitar. I don't have a guitar. Elvis had a guitar. I don't have the privilege of a guitar. But I'd say, baby, who could do it like me? Nobody can do it like me. How great am I? And she'd say, you know, and she'd say, I'd say, how great was the speech? Not how good, how great was it? So does that sound like somebody who's running a campaign or. Or maybe something more like this? We, because of our work together, have finally given Medicare the power to negotiate lower drug prices with big pharma. And understand if my opponent, Donald Trump, wins, his allies in Congress intend to end Medicare and end Medicare's negotiating power. As they remind us again this week, they are essentially saying, check this out, because, you know, you have to ask why, right? So why would you want to end Medicare's negotiating power against big pharma? And essentially, they're saying that it's not fair to big pharma. That's essentially what they're saying. But I'll tell you what's not fair. What's not fair is that our seniors for too long have had to cut pills in half because they cannot afford their full medication. That's not fair. It's not fair that our seniors have had to choose between filling their prescriptions and putting food in their refrigerator, are paying their rent. That's not fair. And that's why we will continue to do our work together, including Fight Project 2025, an agenda that would cut Medicare and increase the cost of health care in our country. Which one of those speeches sounds like it's part of a political campaign? Maybe somebody running for something. Which one of those two people are running a serious campaign for president and which one is not running a campaign of a political seat of any sort? Um, yeah. Now, also, which one of these campaigns do you think has a better chance of winning when in the last few weeks, in the last month, one of them raised $190 million and the other raised $44 million? Kamala Harris is raising four times more than Trump, right? I mean, Trump isn't trying to do anything. He's not trying to raise money. He's doing, uh, that last speech you heard him do. The crowd was big because he was in New York, on Long island, where there are more people who live there. If he went into Pennsylvania, you know, he needs to campaign in Pennsylvania, in the outskirts. You can't get people to come to rallies. And his campaign now just wants him to be happy. They just want him to have big crowds. They don't care about the winning or losing anymore. They're not the ones who are going to prison when he loses. The results of what this is, okay. The results of these two different styles of running a campaign, or at least wasting campaign money on one side and using campaign money on the other side. Polls with me are, uh, like, we need to change how we're doing them. People are changing how they're doing them. For instance, in Pennsylvania, there's a poll called the Suffolk S u f f O l K. Suffolk poll, and it released not one, but three. And this is very interesting. Statewide in Pennsylvania. In this poll, which came out on the 16th, 15th, or 16 September, statewide, Harris, 49%. Trump, 46%. This is a state that the Harris campaign has been nervous about for the last few weeks. But now, after the debate, new polling is showing there are some statewide, uh, averages that put her at 51 and him at 45. Six point lead. Or maybe it was 52 46. Either way, a six point lead for Kamala Harris. In Pennsylvania, the state that everybody says is the state to win and the state that the Harris campaign was most nervous about. They have many paths. Even if they lose Pennsylvania, though, they can replace it by winning Georgia and North Carolina. North Carolina is really looking good right now. Now, let me finish what I was talking about. In Pennsylvania, though. First, the suffolk poll did not do one poll. They did three. The statewide poll, Harris is 49% to Trump, 46%. Then they went to Erie county. These are called bellwether counties. I'm going to interrupt myself again because I think I'm a geek, and I think these kind of things are really interesting. A, uh, bellwether. First of all, the part, uh, weather is not, you know, meteorology. It's spelled w e t h e r. So it's bellwether, b e l l w e t h e r. Weather is a neutered ram or a castrated ram or something like that. I think it's a castrated ram because they castrate the rams, which I, by the way, don't know that I approve of that, but I really know nothing about sheep. So then they'll pick the ram or the sheep that they think is, uh, like the smartest, and they'll put a bell around its neck. So that's where the term bell weather came from. You're putting a bell on a wethers neck, a castrated ram's neck, and the shepherd then can find the herd by listening to the bellwether. So the bellwether leads things. The Suffolk poll is calling Erie county and Northampton county bellwether counties, meaning this is the trend that's coming in. Erie County Harris, 48% to 44% for Trump, that's up four points. Erie county went for Biden in 2020 by one percentage point. Just Northampton County, Harris is up 50 to 45, five point lead. That also went to Biden for one percentage point in 2020. This is the reason that I look into these types of things. You hear polling and it's scary. And everybody says, oh, it's on a razor's edge. Everything's so close. Everything is so close. Polling shows this race is so close. I was at, uh, an event for a candidate the other night, and people were saying, why is this so close? And I was saying, it's really not. It's really not that close when you really dig into the real information, if you're not just watching corporate tv. So I gave you that information about Pennsylvania sounding really good. You've heard me mention the name Simon Rosenberg many times. I decided I was going to let you finally hear Simon Rosenberg instead of listening to me tell you what I heard him say. Here's what Simon Rosenberg said, uh, two days ago. Yeah, listen. The debate changed the election. Her strong performance and Trump's historically awful performance has shifted the election, in my view, by one to two points. In the polling over the last few weeks, she was up two to three. She's now been in the post debate poll, she's been consistently up by about an average of four. And the polls, it's amazing how many of the polls have very, very similar data. Right. It's very unusual. The data has been remarkably consistent. And in the States, we've also seen her, if Biden won by four and a half last time, she's been in the last week around four. And in the States, we've gotten a lot of state polling this week, including in places that are outside the battleground. And she's at or above Biden's 2020 numbers in many of these states, or almost all these states. And so the way I view it, is that she sort of has moved up to where Biden 2020 was. And the question's going to be, and we can talk more about this is what's likely to happen now over the next, you know, in the 50 days that are left, 40 plus days that are left. But we've had a shift in the election. It's very positive for us. I think we should feel good about it. Um, and Trump has clearly been struggling. I mean, they are, they've been flailing. You've been writing, you've been covering this really closely. They've been flailing. And so it does feel like there's a completely new vibe in the election now. That's Simon Rosenberg talking about his point of view. He actually is correct about things. And that's why I listen to him now. He's saying that the DCCC is doing, doing a really great job. He's saying that, um, the intense money raising and enthusiasm is trickling down to down ballot campaigns. Down ballot campaigns. People running for Congress, people running for Senate, people running for state seats, which I'm seeing here in Minnesota with the candidates that I'm working with, volunteers, plethora of volunteers, plethora of money. The enthusiasm is insane and it's helping everyone everywhere. To the degree that you have Colin Allred pulling ahead of Ted Cruz in Texas, my friend Doug wrote me and suggested I should talk about what? About the down ballad seats helping the upper ballot. Colin allred beating Ted Cruz in Texas. Again, I've said this before, but do you think the people who are going to vote against Ted Cruz and fork Holland Allred are going to go up and vote for Donald Trump? I don't. Similar things going on in Florida. Doug Emhoff, Kamala's husband, he was in Florida and he was amazed. He was in what's normally a red part of Florida, and he was amazed at the excitement. And he said, I think we should put money toward Florida. We're talking about Florida and Texas being added to Georgia and North Carolina being added to the normal swing states. It's time for us to take a break, but I have a lot more to talk about with this very interesting and good news we have to talk about on the other side. Let's take a short break. I'm Todd Mickelson, your host. You're listening to a satellite view. We'll be right back. M and m, we're back on a satellite view. If you like the music you're hearing here on the show, go to todmicholson.com press. The music link and you can find this music and much more music that I've written over years and years. And, uh, at the end of the show today, I think I did it last week, we changed, uh, to a new song. It's still a song of mine, you know, kind of an instrumental version of part of a song of mine that we're taking the show out on. So if you're used to listening to this show, you might have noticed that, hey, the song's different at the end. Well, still Todd Mickelson music. Anyway, we were talking about polls. We were talking about, um, how things are looking in the 2024 election. And again, I'm trying to look at my notes. Uh, you know, Congress is back in town and threatening a, uh, government shutdown in Iowa. First of all, Iowa itself, Kamala is only behind by four points. Is that in striking distance? I don't know. I don't know. There was also a poll about white people. I think Kamala getting. She's got a 45%, uh, approval rating or support from 45% of white people. That sounds like, oh, why, it should be higher. I agree it should be 98%, but it's 45%. Here's what's important about that. The last time a democratic presidential candidate had 45% support from white people was 1976. So she's doing just great. She's doing fine. Here is something. Now, there is a, uh, interactive map. If you go to 272, win.com, i believe it is. I believe it's dot, might be dot Gov. Uh, I can look it up, uh.com, 2702, win.com. you can go there and work with the maps, the electoral maps. And I came up with a map that put Kamala over 400 electoral votes. I was going, okay, I think she's going to do this. I think she's going to do this. I think she's going to do this state. I think she's going to do this state. People were starting to already back then, uh, this is maybe two weeks ago, talk about Florida and Texas. I thought, what if she wins Florida and Texas? So I came up with a map anyway, and I'll go through it and explain exactly in a minute here. But I came up with a map that brought Kamala above 400 electoral votes. Of course, you need 270 to win. Now, I want to go to a story. This is from the Economic Times. It's, uh, been repeated in other places as well. I just picked this one because it's definitely not a left leaning type of thing. A reporter produced multiple pieces in late 2020 and early 2021 that centered on the election forecasts put forth. Bye Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller. The incredibly novel approach Miller used to predict the trends and results of the presidential election and the two Georgia senatorial races where the Democrats unexpectedly won both seats and took control of the upper chamber. Miller is back in the ring for the first time since making those wildly improbable predictions. Miller's perspective is important for two main reasons. First, the data it is based on is arguably much more scientific than the voter surveys that are nearly always used to plot the contest's trajectory. Second, four years ago, he attained pinpoint accuracy. Miller outperformed almost every pollster and modeler, parsing multiple voter surveys in all three of 2020 contests. We're talking about in Georgia, the two Senate seats and then the presidential a, uh, week before Election day for the two Senate seats, the polls gave Republican Dave Perdue a wide lead over Democrat John Ossif and showed the GOP's Kelly Loeffler in a dead heat versus opponent Rafael Warnack. But by contrast, Miller's numbers had Loefflere heading for a big loss and ossoff en route to a modest victory. Once again, the contrarian academic nailed it. Miller was just 0.2% short on Warnock's 2% margin and precisely on target in forecasting Ossoff's one percentage final bulge at the ballot box. Now, Miller's approach to political prognostication differs from most by relying on prices established by Americans wagering their dollars on the candidates they think are most likely to prevail. He believes that polls are a snapshot of the recent past and that the odds on betting sites map the future. Miller uses a gauge using a generalized linear model based on results from the most recent 16 presidential elections starting in 1960. The model shows that the daily pricing translates closely into the share of the popular vote favoring each candidate. Miller's model shows that if the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout, with Harris gaining over 400 electoral votes. I found this very interesting. This guy was right on the money in the 2020 presidential election and very close to right on the money for both Senate seats in Georgia. And he's been working on this modeling, obviously very intricately. Half, uh, the words I read I didn't understand either. This is written in a very academic style. But let's go now, then, to the map. I'm starting by her winning in the swing states. I will name Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Those are the main states that everybody's so nervous about. Georgia is another swing state I'm having her winning that. Uh, Biden won that. Oh, Arizona and Nevada are other two swing states. I have her winning those. I'm having her winning North Carolina because of all this stuff that's going on with Mark Robinson, the crazy person that the Republicans decided to choose to be their candidate to run for governor again. My friend Doug is talking about down ballad races, helping up ballad races. Mark Robinson is getting a lot of Democrats motivated to go to the polls to vote against him, and he's making a lot of Republicans sick to their stomach. I don't know if you heard, but the news came out just the other day that he was, years ago on a porn site forum, um, of some sort, calling himself a black Nazi, saying slavery wasn't so bad, they should bring it back. And if they did, I would own a few slaves. He gave, uh, very vile, racist names to Martin Luther King Junior. And this is a black guy. This is a black dude talking like this. A lot of vile stuff. I don't want to go into having to do with sexual porn kind of stuff. And everybody wanted him off the ticket, but he refused. That's the guy running for governor in North Carolina. He was down by ten before this even came out. But aside from that, numbers and polling and all kinds of different things in North Carolina are looking really good for Kamala Harris and looking really bad for Republicans, including Simon Rosenberg. Talking about Republicans putting polls back in 2022 into states to make it look better for Republicans than it really was, putting bogus polling in. Very biased to make the polling averages look more in favor of Republicans than it was in reality. I don't know why they do that. That sounds really stupid to me, but they're really stupid. They did it in 2022. They're starting to do it now. And the main states they're doing it in is North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Telling you that those are the three states they're most nervous about, North Carolina being the main one. It's really looking promising for Kamala Harris to win North Carolina. So I added that to the map. So I have her winning all the swing states, and then I add Florida and Texas, and that brings her to 389 electoral votes. Another state you've heard me talk about because of the 2022 elections and special elections, also in Ohio, where in a Senate race, which is a statewide race, John Fetterman won a, uh, Democrat. So I've been saying that I think, and I said this to a very pessimistic person months ago, that I think Biden is going to win Ohio. She agreed. And this person's very pessimistic, an old friend of mine. So let's add Ohio. Okay, so the states that are, we're a lot less sure of, uh, Florida, Texas. Let's add Ohio brings Kamala to 406 electoral votes. We've been hearing about Iowa. Okay? Now let's just have some fun. Iowa added 412 electoral votes. Remember what happened in Kansas with the abortion issue? Add Kansas, and she's at 418. Okay, now we're getting crazy. I don't think she's going to win Kansas. Iowa. I'm, um, starting to. I'm starting to wonder, you know, Barack Obama won Iowa, so we're talking about the possibility, and people, uh, are talking about a blowout. I just read you this guy who was very accurate in the past, and he's talking about a, uh, blowout. Simon Rosenberg. You heard him speak. Yeah. Uh, going through all this information, this has been an extremely good week in data for the Kamala Harris campaign. Harris walls. Walls. Kicking it. Kicking it. He said a great line. Here's a good life hack. I'm working on my walls. Imitation? Not really. I'm just hacking it. Oh, there's a, uh. Here's a good life hack for you. Surround yourself with smart women and you'll do just fine. And I agree with that. I have agreed with that forever. Now, what we're going to see, sadly, is that the Republicans are in the final moments of their own little sort of cornered animal thing that they're having going on. When the animal gets way unhinged, really starts trying to survive, knowing that it's about to die because it's cornered by its enemy, or whatever you want to call it, by its opponent. The animal is prey to this predator. The animal knows it's about to die. It's sad when it's an animal. I don't know if it's so sad when it's a republican party. The republican party is a cornered animal, and they are getting closer and closer to their final moment, and they know it, and they're lashing out. That's part of this whole. They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats, which is terrorizing bomb threats, closing down schools and hospitals in Springfield, Ohio. Ohio, right. Do you think Springfield, Ohio, is, uh, going to vote for Trump as much as they might have before? He's calling his political opponents vermin, and he's saying they're poisoning the blood of our country. Now, that's all projection. He and JD Vance are poisoning the blood of our country with their b's. So we're going to see some nastiness. It's scary what's going on in Springfield, Ohio, right now. And it's all the fault of Donald Trump and JD Vance. They're not backing down from their absolute b's. And then Sarah Huckleberry sandbag, for some reason, was the host of a fake town hall that Donald Trump was a part of. And she said, my children, make me humble. Kamala Harris, of course, she pronounces it wrong. Kamala, I think she says Harris doesn't have anything to make her humble. That's misogynistic and racist all at the same time. It's the uppity blacks thing. She's not being humble. She's speaking too much. She has too much confidence. She's talking too much, she's too happy. I don't know which is more in the, in the eyes of Sarah, uh, huckleberry sandbag when she says that. I don't know if she's trying to be more misogynistic or if she's trying to be more racist, but she's being both. And we're going to see a lot of that kind of thing from Republicans. Not all Republicans, because many, many Republicans, hundreds, thousands have publicly, like elected officials and people who worked as part of, uh, different, uh, administrations, republican, uh, presidential administrations have publicly are supporting Kamala Harris. They're saying, I'm going to vote for Kamala Harris because Donald Trump is dangerous for America. And we've talked a lot about that on past episodes, if you want to hear more detail, because that's a really interesting conversation, too. And we're going to be having more of that. What is the future of the other party? Are they even going to still be called Republicans, or is there going to have to be a faction that breaks off from the Republicans? What if the leadership of the RNC is still some horrible maggot? Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are going to have to form a new party. Really interesting conversation that we started to talk about it on the last few episodes. Go back and listen to those if you want to get into that conversation. But we're seeing this horribleness, and it's going to escalate until election day, and maybe past, maybe past election day. That's the ugly part of what. We're still dying. We haven't yet gone to heaven. We're still kind of in the process. We're seeing the light, though, and we're moving toward the light of, but we haven't quite passed. I think planet Earth has. And I think in many ways we have. I think, uh, July 21, the darkness really left the earth the moment Joe Biden endorsed Kamala Harris. There are still fingers of the darkness holding on to people and things around Earth. And those people and things are going to get worse for a little longer, and then the fingers will let go of them. We're going to be able to get back to where we can work on, um, things to make life better for people again. We're being led by the new generation of people who are registering to vote in mind blowing droves. All of them are going to vote for Kamala Harris. And down the ballads, it's looking more and more like we're going to be rid of Ted Cruz. Rick Scott in Florida is being threatened. Could we be rid of him? It's getting more and more interesting. This was a great week as far as news in the election. Really, really great week. So feel good about it. Enjoy it. Careful where you get your information. Remember, if you're listening to corporate media and they're saying, this is incredibly close, and Donald Trump's going to win, come and listen to another episode of Satellite View where we're talking about actual, real information. The polls have been consistently wrong for many, many years. You heard Simon Rosenberg on this show say he's never seen the polls, though the data be as consistent as it is. So even people are getting better at running polls, it sounds like. And the fact that the data is consistent means it's more likely correct. He's feeling very good. Uh, where Simon Rosenberg goes, I go because he's, he's correct. He's really good at this stuff. He knows what he's talking about. Anyway, we've run out of time. But thank you so much for listening to a satellite view where we keep each other sane in these crazy times. Yes, the cornered animal is going to strike out more and more. Let's help each other stay sane through that process. We're almost to election day. As of the recording, I believe we're at 45 days. So by the time you listen to this, we're going to be even less than that. We're close to a month out, one more month, and it's going extremely well for us. It's going extremely badly for Trump and Republicans, with no sign that it's going to improve for him or them. So feel good about it. Now, I'm going to be out of town next week. If something incredible happens, I'm going to try and maybe record before I leave, but otherwise I'm going to take the week off. So in two weeks, I'll be speaking at you again. Thank you so much for listening to this episode. You've been listening to a satellite view with Todd Mickelson. Go to todmicholson.com for links and more information. Someday soon, we'll be on the same plane. Someday soon, we are.